BTC Price Prediction: Consolidation Phase Before Potential Breakout

• BTC trading in consolidation pattern between key technical levels
• Institutional activity shows both accumulation and profit-taking
• Macro factors creating conflicting pressures on price action

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-Term Consolidation Likely Before Next Move

According to BTCC financial analyst Sophia, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $105,240, slightly below its 20-day moving average of $106,586. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover with the histogram at +1,426.98, suggesting weakening downward momentum. Bollinger Bands indicate BTC is trading near the middle band, with potential support at $102,024 and resistance at $111,148.

"The technical setup shows a classic consolidation pattern," says Sophia. "While the price is below the 20MA, the MACD suggests bears are losing control. A break above $106,586 could trigger a MOVE toward $111,148, but we need to watch the lower band at $102,024 for potential support."

Mixed Signals in Bitcoin Market as Institutional Activity and Sentiment Diverge

BTCC analyst Sophia notes conflicting signals in current bitcoin market sentiment: "While ETF holdings have dipped slightly, this appears to be normal profit-taking rather than a loss of institutional interest. The futures market shows some exhaustion at these levels, but the fact that supply in profit remains high suggests the bull cycle remains intact."

Sophia highlights two key opposing factors: "On one hand, we see bullish developments like Semler Scientific’s planned $500M crypto expansion and sudden trader Optimism on Binance. On the other, Chinese sell-off plans and cautious futures sentiment create headwinds. This explains the current range-bound price action."

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin ETF Holdings Dip, But BTC Breakout Unlikely Affected

Bitcoin ETF holdings have dipped below a warning level, and outflows along with miner activity signal caution. Despite a bullish breakout attempt, the 30-day apparent demand metric for Bitcoin [BTC] has rebounded from March-April lows, hinting at a potential market shift. However, sentiment remains below the neutral threshold, and without a clean push into positive territory, investor confidence is unlikely to return fully.

Futures Market Shows Signs of Exhaustion as Bitcoin Holds Above $80K

Bitcoin has maintained a high value above $80K, but futures indicators have declined since February 2025, suggesting trader conservatism. The sentiment index, close to its lowest support level, anticipates bearish expectations in the futures market. BTC price fluctuates between $70K and $80K, interpreted as market uncertainty. CryptoQuant data reveals a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and sentiment in the futures market. The indicator contracted as Bitcoin rose above $100K, then rose to a high level before declining, showing initial signs of indecisiveness in futures trading.

Bitcoin Supply In Profit Remains Above Key Level—Bull Cycle Intact?

On-chain data reveals that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit has not dropped below 70% during the current cycle, which could be a positive sign for BTC. The ’Supply in Profit’ indicator tracks the percentage of the total BTC supply in circulation held at a net unrealized profit, based on the transaction history of each coin.

Bitcoin Price Range-Bound—But a Move Higher May Be Brewing?

Bitcoin price struggled near the $86,500 zone and started a fresh decline below the $85,500 and $85,000 levels. It tested the $83,200 support with a low at $83,171 and recently corrected some losses, moving above the $83,800 level. BTC is now consolidating and might attempt to clear the $85,200 resistance zone. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $84,800 on the hourly chart.

Bitcoin Price Holds Steady, But Futures Sentiment Signals Caution

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a steady rise in price from November 2024 to February 2025, peaking at $101,000. However, following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, BTC, along with other risk-on assets, experienced a significant pullback. After hitting a potential local bottom of $74,508 on April 6, BTC has recovered some of its recent losses and is currently trading in the mid $80,000 range. Despite this recovery, Bitcoin’s futures sentiment index signals caution.

Bitcoin Faces Pressure from Chinese Sell-Off Plans

A new report by Reuters suggests that China may liquidate large amounts of confiscated Bitcoin, exerting downward pressure on BTC’s price. Local governments have been engaging private companies to convert seized Bitcoin into cash to bolster public finances strained by a slowing economy. Legal experts and officials are calling for clearer regulations, and one professor described these disposals as a makeshift solution not fully in line with China’s current policies.

Bitcoin Drops to $83,380 Amid China Sell-Off and Meliuz’s BTC Purchase

Bitcoin edged lower on Wednesday, slipping 0.29% to $83,380 as bulls and bears battled for control. The decline follows sell-offs from a major government holder, presumably China. On the positive side, Brazilian fintech firm Meliuz confirmed its intention to add Bitcoin to its corporate treasury strategy, already holding 45 BTC worth around $4.1 million. A shareholder vote on May 6 will determine whether BTC officially becomes a long-term reserve asset. This announcement sent CASH3 shares soaring 14% on the day and up 27% over five days, sparking optimism across Latin America’s corporate crypto landscape.

Bitcoin Traders Suddenly Turn Bullish on Binance

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering near $84,429, holding steady just below a key resistance at $85,500. According to the latest data, Binance’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has moved into positive territory at 1.008, indicating more aggressive buyers than sellers are stepping in, often a precursor to a breakout. This shift in sentiment among Binance traders suggests a potential uptrend for Bitcoin.

Semler Scientific Files to Raise $500M, Plans to Expand Crypto Holdings

Semler Scientific, a healthcare technology company, has settled a large case with the Department of Justice and plans to raise $500 million in new securities. The company intends to use part of the funds to expand its crypto holdings, which are already in excess of 3,000 coins, including Bitcoin (BTC). Semler Scientific has reached a $29.75 million settlement with the DOJ regarding marketing practices for its QuantaFlo product, following an investigation that began in 2017.

Donald Trump Unveils Monopoly Blockchain Real Estate Game

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans for a new blockchain-based real estate game inspired by Monopoly. Slated for a late April release, the game will follow a style similar to MONOPOLY GO!, where players earn currency, navigate a digital board, and construct virtual buildings. The game is being developed by Bill Zanker, a close Trump associate, and is part of Trump’s growing portfolio of digital ventures, which also includes NFTs, a meme token, a DeFi platform, and a Bitcoin mining operation. The announcement marks the latest in a series of crypto-focused initiatives tied to Trump.

Analyst Raises Concerns Over Global M2 Data for Bitcoin Forecasts

A financial analyst, TXMCtrades, has criticized the use of global M2 money supply data to predict Bitcoin (BTC) price movements, arguing that such analyses are mathematically unsound and misleading. The criticism comes as the global M2 money supply reaches an all-time high, with several analysts forecasting similar trends for BTC. TXMCtrades specifically pointed to a chart by macro investor Raoul Pal that compared Bitcoin’s price to global M2.

Is BTC a good investment?

Based on current technicals and market sentiment, BTCC analyst Sophia provides this assessment of BTC as an investment:

"For long-term investors," Sophia notes, "the fundamentals remain strong with institutional adoption continuing. Short-term traders should watch the $102,024-$106,586 range for breakout signals. Dollar-cost averaging may be prudent given current volatility."

• Technical indicators show BTC in consolidation with mixed signals
• Institutional interest remains despite short-term ETF outflows
• Market sentiment is divided between bullish developments and bearish pressures